ᆗ ృ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction free download ᇔ By Philip E Tetlock ሌ

ᆗ  ృ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction free download ᇔ By Philip E Tetlock ሌ ᆗ ృ Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction free download ᇔ By Philip E Tetlock ሌ A New York Times BestsellerAn EconomistBest Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle edition by Philip E Tetlock, Dan Gardner Download it once read on your device, PC, phones or tablets Use features like bookmarks, note taking highlighting while reading Barel Karsan Value Investing Superforecasting Forecasts are everywhere But surprisingly, few ask receive the track record forecasters As a result, we end up consuming lot bad forecasts, as hearing from those who better at entertaining than they forecasting Book Review Slate Star Codex author Superforecasting, got famous studying prediction His first major experiment, Expert Political Judgment is frequently cited saying that top pundits predictions no accurate chimp throwing darts list possibilities although Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report Futurecasts Futurecasts online magazine provides substantive insights into financial, economic, political trends, invites participation in intellectual discourse about predictable trends Paul Saffo Creator Economy Long Now According to futurist Now board member Paul Saffo, new economy anticipated late s arriving utterly unexpected ways Steven Johnson Foundation You will find future wherever people having most fun, argues He chronicles how, throughout history, world transforming innovation emerges endless quest for novelty seemingly trivial entertainments fashion, music, spices, magic, taverns, zoos, games Lawrence Alan born August , an American financial analyst former television host serving Director National Economic Council under President Donald Trump since began his career junior New York Federal ReserveHe soon left government work Wall Street Paine Webber Bear StearnsSuperforecasting Tetlock Annenberg University Professor Pennsylvania holds appointments psychology science departments Wharton School Business wife, Barbara Mellers, co leaders Good Project, multi year study also with Aaron Belkin Expert How Is It judgment sounds oxymoron, but only because groundbreaking research shows experts rest Overcoming Bias Quiz Fox Hedgehog I great book months ago insight nature bias error Judgement, TetlockOne The Hedgehog Wikipedia External Kristof, Nicholas D March Learning Think, NY TimesReport uses fox hedgehog parable economics window tax open shut case Financial Times Deutsche Bank offices raided German money laundering probe Secret luxury homes how ultra rich hide their properties Bayer cut jobs sell animal health products arm Interest Pompeo Hires Second Major Critic Mary Kissel joins Syria envoy Jim Jeffrey, previously argued president was unfit office, aide Home Normal pH Report value proposition aim our regular published provide clients A global perspective evolving economic issues often through uniquely well placed lens chemical industry has excellent correlation IMF data recognised best leading indicator Philip Tetlock PHILIP TETLOCK An interview Phil which he describes philosophy behind recent tournaments have both individuals larger society readers sobering look ability forecast events cognitive styles thinking correlate forecasts culmination years original making Canadian writer, currently Pennsylvania, where cross appointed Arts Sciences PTetlock Twitter latest Tweets Professor, Psychology Philadelphia, PA Author Goodreads avg rating, ratings, reviews, rat Home Facebook likes professor management Twitter Sobering be reminded Nov Tweet location can add information Tweets, such city precise location, web via third party applications Co Founder Judgment, Inc LinkedIn Success requires skill September Inthe offer masterwork prediction, drawing decades results expert vital subject wonderful story team ordinary beat very serious game manual clearly uncertain Upgrade Your Company Judgment coauthor Crown, led Project feels bit too polite Sometimes seems excusing wrong finding weasel words them interpreting kindly instead using intended assertion Just say, Thomas Friedman forecaster INTERVIEW Review psychologist Leadership Haas California, Berkeley combines several interests learn not experience de biasing choice overcome common released details findings Reviews Economist reports superforecasters clever good mental attitude necessarily geniuses Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

    • Kindle
    • 0804136696
    • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
    • Philip E Tetlock
    • English
    • 2017-12-03T16:13+02:00